On Eve of His Funeral, Debating Chávez’s Legacy
On Eve of His Funeral, Debating Chávez’s Legacy
A Hugo Chávez stencil and the words “I will be
present in the fight. Chavez lives in the heart of the people.”
CARACAS, Venezuela — Heads of state from around
Latin America flocked to Venezuela for the funeral on Friday of Hugo
Chávez, a tribute to the undiminished drawing power of
the charismatic leftist leader, although perhaps not to the lasting influence
of his socialist-inspired policies.
Mr. Chávez, who died Tuesday of
cancer at 58, was one of the loudest voices in Latin America, pushing a vision
of regional unity and defiance of Washington, sweetened with cheap oil
shipments to needy neighbors. But the legacy of Mr. Chávez’s Bolivarian revolution
remains more limited than he would have liked.
“It didn’t catch on,” said Alejandro Toledo, a former president of
Peru. “The important thing is that Mexico has not followed his example, Chile
has not followed his example, Peru has not followed his example, Colombia has
not followed his example, Brazil has not followed his example. I’m talking
about big countries with large, sustained economic growth.”
Venezuela had one of the lowest rates of economic growth in the
region during the 14 years that Mr. Chávez held office, according to World Bank
data. It has high inflation and chronic shortages of basic goods. It has one of
the highest rates of violent crime, and it is riven by bitter political
divisions.
“Those indicators were not lost on other parts of the hemisphere,”
said Patrick Duddy, a former United States ambassador to Venezuela.
And while poverty went down significantly during Mr. Chávez’s
years as president, other countries, like Brazil, Peru and Colombia, made
progress in reducing poverty while following paths very different from that of
Mr. Chávez.
Brazil, in particular, stands out as a regional success story,
using market-oriented policies and innovative social programs to move millions
from poverty into the middle class.
“The intention of Venezuela to be the shining light of the new
left has not been realized,” said Leonardo Valente, a professor of
international relations at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. “The other
countries that have governments to the left and center-left are looking to
Brazil and other countries that have a different position, a more balanced position.”
Yet Mr. Chávez had many influential and enthusiastic allies, as
evidenced by the international outpouring that followed his death on Tuesday.
In an opinion article published in The New York Times on Thursday,
former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil, whose policies are
credited with the country’s strong economic growth and poverty reduction,
lauded Mr. Chávez for his commitment to improving the lives of his country’s
poor.
And he praised him for his pursuit of regional unity, including his
role in starting groups like the Union of South American Nations, the Community
of Latin American and Caribbean States and the Bolivarian Alliance for the
Americas.
But some analysts point out that Mr. Chávez also clashed with some
regional leaders and undermined efforts at integration that did not mesh with
his ideological views. And his fiery clashes with the United States were seen
by many as counterproductive.
“What happens with Chávez’s passing is the temperature goes down a
little bit, the decibel level goes down,” said Michael Shifter, president of
the Inter-American Dialogue. “Chávez has been a very polarizing figure.”
President Evo
Morales of Bolivia, a
close friend of Mr. Chávez, was among the first leaders to arrive in Caracas
this week, and he made the entire seven-hour walk on Wednesday beside Mr.
Chávez’s coffin from the hospital where he died to a military academy where he
lay in state.
People stood in line for hours for the chance to pass briefly by
the glass-covered coffin where Mr. Chávez lay, wearing a green uniform and a
red beret like the one he wore when he first appeared on the nation’s
television screens after the failed 1992 coup that he led.
“He looked just like he did in life,” said Luis Cabrera Aguirre, a
retired rear admiral who served as an adviser to Mr. Chávez.
Vice President Nicolás Maduro, Mr. Chávez’s
designated successor, announced that the government intended to embalm the body
— “just like Ho Chi Minh, like Lenin, like Mao” — so Venezuelans could see him
eternally on display in the Museum of the Revolution.
Throughout
the day on Thursday, government television broadcast the nonstop passage of
mourners. Many saluted the president’s remains. Others crossed themselves. One
elderly woman beat her breast and nearly fainted. Meanwhile, conflicting
accounts of Mr. Chávez’s last hours emerged.
The
Reuters news agency reported that a government official had said that Mr.
Chávez fell into a coma on Monday and died the next day of respiratory failure.
But the
head of Venezuela’s presidential guard, Gen. José Ornella, told The Associated
Press that Mr. Chávez died of a major heart attack after mouthing the words, “I
don’t want to die. Please don’t let me die.”
Many
questions remained over what is next for Venezuela. Foreign Minister Elías Jaua
said Wednesday that Mr. Maduro would become interim president and that the
government would adhere to the Constitution, which says the nation should
proceed to a new election within 30 days. Late Thursday officials said that Mr.
Maduro would be sworn in president on Friday. But no election plans have yet
been announced.
A decree
declaring a seven-day period of national mourning had already appeared with Mr.
Maduro’s signature, identifying as “president in charge.” It was also signed by
two dozen cabinet ministers.
Mr.
Maduro is expected to run for president against Henrique Capriles Radonski, a
state governor who lost an election to Mr. Chávez in October.
Most
political observers expect that Mr. Maduro will ride a wave of loyalty and
grief over Mr. Chávez’s death to an election victory. Yet looming economic
problems and deep political divisions will make for a difficult transition,
which the region will be watching closely.
Oil is
the heart of Venezuela’s economy — the country has the world’s largest
estimated reserves — and, although the United States buys more Venezuelan oil
than any other country, it was also at the center of Mr. Chávez’s foreign
policy and its anti-American thrust.
Mr.
Chávez forged close ties with fellow OPEC member Iran, in defiance of the United States-led effort to
isolate that country over its nuclear program.
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran was expected to attend the funeral.
And Mr.
Chávez shipped oil to Syria despite international repudiation of President
Bashar al-Assad’s aggressive response to an internal uprising.
Closer to
home, Mr. Chávez assured himself of the loyalty of his neighbors by shipping
billions of dollars of oil and fuel a year to countries in Latin America and
the Caribbean under special agreements that required them to pay for only a
portion of the cost up front, often with products like chicken, soybeans, wheat
or clothing. The remainder of the cost was structured as a long-term loan at
low interest.
The
program was popular among his supporters in Venezuela, who saw it as a high-minded
expression of solidarity with other underdeveloped nations. But the opposition
was bitterly opposed, seeing it as a costly giveaway at a time of many
unattended needs at home. Even if Mr. Chávez’s supporters remain in control, a
rocky economy and stagnant oil production could ultimately make it hard to keep
the oil program going at present levels.
The most
extreme consequences of such a change would be felt in Cuba, a main ally, which
has been propped up by large shipments of Venezuelan oil. But other countries,
like Nicaragua and Bolivia, will feel the bite, and it may hamper the ability
of a successor to retain the support of regional leaders.
“Venezuela’s
influence in Latin America was built on the back of oil exports and oil
wealth,” said Blake Clayton, an energy fellow at the Council on Foreign
Relations. “Whoever succeeds Chávez will have a hard time retaining, let alone
increasing, the country’s influence with its neighbors.”
Clifford
Krauss contributed reporting from Houston.
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