Is Jordan heading for chaos ?هل الأردن على أعتاب الفوضى ؟
Is Jordan heading for chaos?
The royal court's
unwillingness to make real constitutional reforms increases the risk of further
unrest and its own removal
Samer Libdeh
An anti-government protest in Amman, Jordan, earlier this month.
Photograph: Muhammad Hamed/Reuters
As the impact of the Arab
spring continues to be felt across many parts of the
Middle East, the Jordanian regime's unwillingness to heed calls for
meaningful political reform, greater press freedoms and democratisation is
antagonising political and civil society activists alike.
While protests and
demonstrations in Jordan have been small and relatively peaceful compared with
those in other countries in the region, the royal court's continued
intransigence could lead to further unrest, including violent clashes with
security forces.
In what was widely seen
as an effort to stamp out criticism of the royal court, the Jordanian
parliament – which consists mainly of conservative pro-regime members –
recently passed a
controversial press and publications law that requires online media organisations to register and
obtain licences from the authorities.
In addition, online
publishers will be held accountable for comments posted by readers on their
website and they will be prohibited from publishing comments that are not
strictly relevant to the published article (how this is to be determined is far
from clear). This law is clearly designed to limit the dissemination of
political commentary that may be critical of the regime.
Although the royal court
has in recent months proposed changes to the constitution and the electoral
law, these have largely been dismissed as a cosmetic exercise since the king
will retain the power to dismiss parliament at will and the proposed new
electoral system is still rigged in favour of regime supporters.
In addition, the
majority of Jordanians (ie Palestinian-Jordanians) will be significantly
under-represented in the parliament. The leading opposition group in Jordan,
the Islamic Action Front (IAF – the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood) has vowed to
boycott legislative elections planned for early next year and has called for a mass rally to take place in early October.
The IAF is demanding
meaningful constitutional amendments to reduce the powers of the king and to
amend the current electoral system, which mainly benefits regime supporters.
Additionally, influential Transjordanian tribes have been calling for
anti-corruption measures as well as amendments to the constitution to give
further powers to the parliament.
While there have not
been calls for the abolition of the monarchy, the royal court's refusal to
properly engage with the protesters is likely to increase tension in the
kingdom and could ultimately lead to calls for the removal of the king.
The royal court has a
difficult balancing act to perform. First, the protesters are divided.
Transjordanians, who have been traditionally loyal to the Hashemite regime, are
opposed to political reform that challenges their inherited privileged status
and position, and are resisting calls to increase the representation of
Palestinian-Jordanians in parliament.
While the king will have
to respond to the demands of the IAF and the Palestinian-Jordanians, he will
also have to remain sensitive to the needs of the Transjordanians. This will
not be an easy task.
Second, if the royal
court agrees to real constitutional and political reform there is a risk that
the IAF will obtain control of parliament and as a result it would be able to
challenge the authority and power of the king – for example by introducing
further amendments to the constitution.
Third, the Jordanian
economy and the royal court's patronage network is largely funded by financial
aid from Saudi Arabia, which strongly opposes further democratisation in the
Middle East. The royal court is, therefore, coming under pressure from one of
its main financial backers to resist calls for political change.
Given the strategic
geopolitical importance of the Hashemite kingdom, it is not in the interests of
western or regional governments to see Jordan descend into chaos or experience
further unrest. So what should be done? A low turnout in the parliamentary elections
scheduled to take place later this year under the royal court's new electoral
law will be a disaster for the regime and it will raise questions over the
legitimacy of the king's reform agenda. Thus the royal court needs to
positively engage with protesters and postpone the elections until agreement is
reached with stakeholders on political and constitutional reform.Jordan has the
potential to transition to democracy in a more peaceful and organised way by
following the Moroccan example. In 2011, the Moroccan monarchy agreed to
transfer more powers to parliament, including the authority to form cabinets.
This ensured the survival of the monarchy and averted further unrest and
violence there.Unfortunately, it does not appear as if Jordan's king has the
vision or the courage to follow this path – but failure to learn the lessons of
the Arab spring may mean that the Jordanian people will make that decision for
him.
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